The Inside Story of Microsoft's 'Project Natal' 130
Lanxon writes "Wired has published a lengthy behind-the-scenes feature documenting the inception, development and technological struggles of Microsoft's Project Natal, now known as Kinect. The feature is the result of conversations the magazine had with a number of key developers and researchers behind the project, and unprecedented access to Microsoft Research in a number of countries, over the course of three years."
Waste of R&D dollars, if you ask me (Score:2, Interesting)
What's the likelihood that they will recoup enough money to have made this worthwhile? Microsoft has put a HUGE amount of money and effort behind development & advertising for Natal/Kinect...but how many people are really going to buy it?
Look at the Playstation Move...a huge amount of promotion and hype leading up to its release, and then barely a peep about it after hitting the streets. The same thing will likely happen with Kinect. If it really does retail for $150 as has been widely reported, then
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Please note that I'm not criticizing the technology...I'm criticizing what Microsoft is deciding to do with it at the moment.
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Actually most projects in Microsoft Research never come close to making any money, they are just meant to be feeder projects for future products. The fact that this one came to market so quickly is really unique.
Most people forget how much money some of the big companies like Microsoft and IBM put into pure research efforts (i.e. no immediate plan for a ROI)
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Most people forget how much money some of the big companies like Microsoft and IBM put into pure research efforts (i.e. no immediate plan for a ROI)
Forget? Is there anything to really forget? Back in the day, IBM did quite a bit of pure research and now, occasionally you'll see something about them writing "IBM" with atoms or making a computer that's really fast but nothing like the research they did.
BTW, nothing will ever beat AT&T Bell Labs - especially for the pure research they did back when they existed - all that's gone now.
Basically, a guy like William Shockley wouldn't have a chance in this day and age.
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The parent post isn't remotely offtopic to the conversation at hand and he should not have been modded as such.
Remember folks, there's no "-1, I Disagree" option.
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They should get Carol Vorderman to do the advert. "Now you can consolidate all your super sucky controllers into one, easy, Mega sucky interface"
You Should Be Criticizing The Shoddy Tech (Score:5, Interesting)
Microsoft was caught faking their demos for their Eye Toy style motion controls for the past two E3s.
And first had reports constantly talk of horrible lag between arm movements and response.
You can't play games while sitting down.
You need to have a relatively large area completely clear in whatever room you are using it in.
There are lighting issues that cause the system to have trouble recognizing motion.
There are clothing issues that cause the system to have trouble recognizing motion.
It doesn't recognize fine motions like finger actions.
It only supports two players.
It should be obvious why Microsoft was forced to fake their demos and so far there has been almost zero real world demos outside of carefully controlled showings with people Microsoft is certain are going to hype the product.
Not that any of that really matters. There isn't any game even remotely interesting or fun that Microsoft has show for the system. When Nintendo showed off the Wii they were confident enough to let everyone at the very first E3 where it was shown play it and had games that both gamers and non-gamers really wanted to play.
Most likely the only people who will end up buying this shoddy tech from Microsoft are the same ones who jumped on the dead HD-DVD format.
No other option than to pedal this junk for MS (Score:1, Insightful)
What was Microsoft going to do?
They had been in the console market for 8 years and have gotten nowhere. Some 7 or 8 billion in losses - much higher if you calculate how many other products in Microsoft's E&D division have been hiding the true Xbox generated losses. They have no hardware design and manufacturing capabilities to be able to compete with Sony. They have a joke internal game development studio array - only 3 or so first party studios compared to Sony's gigantic 21 or so and Nintendo with 10.
Re:You Should Be Criticizing The Shoddy Tech (Score:5, Informative)
I take it you didn't get to PAX this year... lots of Kinect demos (both by MS and by third-party developers). They all worked pretty well. Some had huge lines of people waiting to play. They all had people watching. Everybody walking away afterward looked excited.
Don't get me wrong, Kinect is far from perfect and the cost is substantial, but the system most assuredly works and people are hyped for the games.
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During the only part he didn't fake, he showed the debug output of the controller on one screen (skeletal model superimposed over body silhouette), and the movement was *extremely* noisy and jumpy, easily fooled unless all your limbs are visible in the silhouette. Games are going to have to do a ton of event noise smoothing to get anything useful.
It als
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Most likely the only people who will end up buying this shoddy tech from Microsoft are the same ones who jumped on the dead HD-DVD format.
Or people who explained to their girlfriend it's probably worthless crap but their girlfriend pre-ordered it anyway... :-(
That's 150 euro's wasted. Yes euro's, thats about 209 USD... Fuck!
<grumbling> Never should have given her that creditcard... </grumbling>
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Let me guess...
You also sat around forums writing about how your Xbox 360 never ever died from the RRoD, or scratched your discs, or destroyed your discs, or sounded like a jet engine.
Time and time again when real people who aren't trying to or being paid to hype Microsoft's motion controls all say the same two things:
1. Lag. Lots of lag between when you move your arms and when the system registers those movements
2. Lack of precision. It only recognizes your most basic movements.
Which of course would explai
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Time and time again when real people who aren't trying to or being paid to hype Microsoft's motion controls all say the same two things
Care to provide references? Only please find the people who actually spent some time with Kinect, not just read about it somewhere on the intertubes like you did.
I also had a chance of trying out Kinect for real. I failed to see what the excitement is from the gaming point of view - the control scheme does not lend itself towards any kind of "pro gaming", IMO - but I didn't see any sloppiness on behalf of the tech itself. No lag at all, and precision enough to navigate menus with gestures.
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I agree, I'm what would I suppose be categorised as a hard core gamer, so personally for me Kinect's launch titles provide nothing compelling enough for me to be interested in buying it either.
Despite that, the GP's comments are complete FUD, the tech itself seems fine. As I mentioned in another post in reply to Pojut's original comment, I'm a little dismayed that they dropped the quality of the camera so that it can no longer handle hand/finger gestures, which would've been great for FPS games being able t
Re:You Should Be Criticizing The Shoddy Tech (Score:4, Funny)
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Dear competitors of the people who hire Thud457, I will gladly accept a competitive rate to counteract every post he makes for your corporate rivals.
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I don't own an xbox, I never will, I'm not a console guy. I did get to use a Kinect though, a friend had one set up at a party. It was pretty fun, everyone seemed to enjoy it. I did notice some minor lag. The worst was this one game where you ride this cart on rails and have to move to dodge stuff, but for the most part it seemed like when you are actually playing you don't notice the lag. Or you sort of do at first, but then your body movements synch up with it. Overall I was very impressed by how well the
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I don't believe the Wii is much more powerful than the GameCube, which itself IMHO was not much more powerful than the N64.
Thus proving you safe to ignore.
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The Dreamcast had the Dreameye
The PS2 had the EyeToy
The PS3 has the PlayStation Eye
Even the 360 has the Xbox Live Vision
All of them failed to change gaming as we know it. Yeah, the EyeToy had a few games that made use of it, yeah, they were fun in a weird way but they were just tech demos.
We've been trying the camera + console combo for a decade and none of them have really changed gaming... at all.
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At least Sony is reusing components; The PlayStation Eye is one of two required* pieces in the Sony Move system.
I can only think of 3 games that used the N64 memory expansion: Donkey Kong 64, Perfect Dark, and The Legend of Zelda: Majora's Mask.
Having said that, there are other things I can th
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I can only think of 3 games that used the N64 memory expansion: Donkey Kong 64, Perfect Dark, and The Legend of Zelda: Majora's Mask.
Yeah, that and StarCraft 64 were the only 4 games which required the expansion pack, however, when most people compile lists of what were considered to be the "best" N64 games, usually Perfect Dark or Majora's Mask makes it close to or the top game, so I'd consider that a success when compared to things like the 32x (can anyone even think of a 32x game without Googling a list of them? And even then how many of them were considered "classics" like Perfect Dark or Majora's Mask is considered today? My guess
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Yes, specifically Knuckles Chaotix and Doom 32x... although the latter is really easy to remember.
The 32x didn't have classics, but there are some addons that did have classics.
Sonic CD for the Sega CD is considered a classic, and has spawned both a PC version, and Gamecube and PS2 re-releases (as part of Sonic Gems; Sonic CD was
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Obligatory Angry Video Game Nerd Sega CD review:
http://www.gametrailers.com/video/angry-video-screwattack/19089 [gametrailers.com]
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Personally I think Sony certainly seems committed to "doing it all".
Between "Kung Fu Live!", which seems comparable to Kinect does, requiring only the PS Eye. http://www.kungfulivegame.com/ [kungfulivegame.com], the PS Move system, which seems to replicate what the Wii Motion+ can do, and the traditional PS controllers, there are loads of choices for interactive controls, and, there is the ability for supporting Multiple methods of control, so a developer doesn't need to fully commit to one method (which is a good thing to enco
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Sorry. Much falseness here.
First of all, the on-board processor was dropped. Kinect places its entire processing load on the 360 (putting a 10-15 % load on the CPU).
Second, the "regular camera" in it runs at 640x480 30Hz, which is bad enough, but the infrared projector runs at 320x240, which is abysmal and the reason the device cannot detect things like finger movements.
The device is not ambitious at all; it's old tech. We've been doing depthmaps from two image sources for about as long as we've had came
Re:Waste of R&D dollars, if you ask me (Score:4, Informative)
Here, [destructoid.com] here, [videogamec...ctions.com] here, [pressthebuttons.com] and here. [absolutegadget.com]
Actually, Kinect only allows skeletal recognition for its own Avatars [eurogamer.net] -- that functionality is not available to games developers. Both consoles are doing an equal amount of skeletal recognition in the SDK exposed to developers -- none.
Because, quite simply, everyone else knows it's not worth it. In fact, Sony was offered the Kinect technology and chose not to use it [n4g.com], specifically because they knew its marketability is limited.
Sony has already tried the no-controller camera-driven games with the EyeToy, which bombed. There have been all kinds of toy programs using webcams, which are all forgotten. Adding a depth camera does not fundamentally change the interaction -- in fact, it barely affects it at all. In userspace, Kinect is EyeToy, is doomed. You cannot play engaging games without a controller.
If they cannot sell two cameras and a toy motor for less than $150 I'll eat my hat. Do you really believe, for instance, that they "can't sell" a 250GB hard drive for less than $129.99 [xbox.com] when normal 250GB hard drives can be had for less than $50 [newegg.com] (a third of the price, ultimately)?
If I put a box of trash up on eBay for only a 10% markup over what it all cost me, how many people do you think will buy it? The market doesn't care what you spent. It cares what the price is and what they get out of it. $150 is going to sail right over everyone's head. You may bookmark this post and refer back to it when the Kinect line is officially discontinued (I will give it say Summer of 2012, after Microsoft loses a lot of money, which is what their games division has been doing all along.)
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Barely a peep in the media doesn't mean people aren't intrigued. I'm personally very interested in Playstation Move and am seriously considering picking it up for the holidays. If I owned an Xbox360 I'd be considering their option. Judging from what I've seen, and my experience with the Wii, it looks like it could be a lot of fun. And isn't that really all that matters?
This isn't something that's going to pay off overnight. It's something that needs to be built on. I won't go so far as to suggest that it's
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Just hope they build better on it than they did with the Wii. The initial Wii Sports idea (and the spin offs sports ressort and wii fit) is great! But there is hardly any other game making use of motions like those few. (Not counting those mini-games as Raving Rabbits)
Samba di Amigo is the (very) notable exception.
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Just give it some time. It takes a while for natal technology to be borne out.
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"Just give it some time. It takes a while for natal technology to be borne out."
About 9 months from inceptions to first article test.
But it usually takes about 18 years to start earning its keep. Sometimes longer.
(I don't think many other people got your joke....)
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Maybe you can get the Kinect thing for yourself, as well...
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I don't know where you live, but if my kids play outside around Christmas, they may literally freeze to death. :)
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But if you get him a gadget, he'll be ruined~
On a more serious note-I'm going to have to pick up that book for my kids. Looks cool.
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If you want to buy him something gaming-related, get him an NES or an Atari 2600 and a crapton of games for the same amount of money.
Just like my parents made sure to expose me to classic rock from the 60's and 70's, I'm going to make sure I expose my kid to the earlier days of console gaming.
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My parents didn't expose me to the Atari 2600 until after Star Wars came out. Why did they make me wait so long?!!!
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People will buy it (Score:2)
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Loss for Microsoft?
I don't know. First, I know many dual PS3/XBOX360 users that didn't by Move because they are waiting for Kinect ...
Secondly, how many patents is Microsoft Gaining by developing this technology. Like it or not, those are worth more than their weight in gold.
Finally, this is technology they we reuse over and over again, so even if the original product doesn't take off, the research costs can still pay off moving forward.
R&D is usually a long term investment.
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You assume microsoft wants to recoup the cost on this generation of console release. Sounds like this is a good way to debut a new technology such that it can be refined and improved for the next generation console. 360 is already 5yrs old. The next iteration is due
Consumers are paying to beta test a technology that will really hit the big time in the next console generation.
Re:Waste of R&D dollars, if you ask me (Score:4, Insightful)
To be fair, I think things like Move and Kinect are really just ramping up for the next generation of console equipment that will have this stuff as standard. I doubt they're counting on doing anymore than breaking even, if that for now. Getting developers onboard and used to the tech so that they could really push it next gen is probably a good thing too- look how many 3rd party developers really struggled to take advantage of the Wii, most stuff that's been churned out since release has been utter crap, and it's taken a while to get some good 3rd party stuff out there.
There was a story some weeks ago about how Natal could previously even read sign language, and detect finger gestures, but to make the equipment fit in the $150 price range they switched to a lower resolution IR camera. I'd imagine they'll put the higher resolution back in for the next gen console so FPS players can issue commands with hand gestures and that sort of thing, which they could've done this time if they'd made Natal prohibitively more expensive. I guess the technology is too new and expensive to really push it to it's limits right now, but by the time the XBox 720 or whatever comes out it may not be.
I'm also not sure at least in the case of Natal (I don't know about Move) that the R&D will be wasted even if it flops in gaming. I'd imagine hands free interfaces are something Microsoft is hoping to capitalise on elsewhere in the future. It's like things like multi-touch and gesture recognition, it's not new, but it's really come into it's own in recent years finding it's way on mobile devices and becoming a must have feature. It may be that Natal wiill find it's niche in for example TVs, to provide hands free control of them or something like that.
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Again, I'm not questioning the technology, just what they are doing with it. If I want to be active, I'll go outside; I play video games to be lazy.
A lot of hype... (Score:2)
I mean, what happens when this turns out to be the 360's version of the "Eye Toy" for the PS2?
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there are demos in some stores right now (Score:2)
Macy's I think? Ordinary people can try it.
By all accounts, yes, it is 360's EyeToy. You've got the same kind of games, with a little better control and better graphics.
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Apparently it was actually novel and useful enough for its time to generate grassroot interest
Indeed. Real testament to the marketing geniuses at sony: I never once saw a commercial for the eye toy. There was only one eye toy shipped to the gamestop I was working at. Before guitar hero though, that was the only console accessory I heard anyone talk about.
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One of the reasons is that the external hardware required was just a repackaged webcam. So they offered it with both of there flagship eyetoy games ( 'eye play' and 'eye play 2') for the normal cost of the game. The tech to develop it was trivial even though it was novel. They just took a diff of successive frames. This method is cheap and it simple but not without problems. Lighting and backround matters, I had to basically put a light pointing at me if I wanted the game not to make mistakes and miss
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3rd try's a charm? Kinect: The 3rd Wiimote killer (Score:3, Insightful)
I hate to sound cynical, but this will only be the 3rd Wiimote killer since the 6-axis took it's aim. With all of Kinect's extra features over the de facto, it should fit really nicely next to all of the iPod-killers of yor.
The Kinect is the Firewire of the Firewire-USB war. Overly expensive and unsupported compared to it's contemporary cousin even if it may have better technology. It only takes a (USB2-style) revision to make the things Kinect has moot and the populace moves on...
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Having used the Balance Board, it's got major limitations. There are games which want to you "jump" on the Wii (Snowboarding), but if you actually jump, the game freezes and displays a warning: Do not jump on the balance board. Major gameplay killer.
Kinect sees your entire body and can handle jumping, moving, and more, without a controller. Start
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Trivia point: USB never got close to the performance of firewire. What they did was figure out how to get a bigger number out there on the box.
A 400Mb/s FireWire connection runs rings around a "480"Mb/s USB2.
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You don't actually have to work at MS to try Kinect if you visit various developer conferences and such. My wife went to one in Vancouver recently, and they had Xbox with Kinect there to show off to anyone willing to give it a try. She was impressed. Me, not so much (though I tried it on an internal demo unit) - but only as far as games go. I think it's an interesting UI concept in general, and the most creative applications will be outside of games.
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*Sigh*, I know I shouldn't feed the trolls, but here I go anyway:
The PS3 Move can detect me rotating my wrist by less than a few degrees, and is accurate down to sub millimeter.
It works sitting down, sideways, on the ground, in high and low light (Even worked with light off when I played archery).
It handles multiple players, and multiple controllers
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The PS3 Move can detect me rotating my wrist by less than a few degrees, and is accurate down to sub millimeter.
So, it's going to be very popular among the ./ crowd?
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There were quite a few of them at PAX, and they were a lot of fun. There are some (live try-it-out demo stations) at big electronics stores around here. It's real tech and people want it. The only thing harder to do that see over the ring of people watching is wait in line long enough for a chance to play.
Holodeck (Score:2)
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Good news then! You are currently in a holodeck, sadly it(rather expectedly) went wrong and now you don't realize you are on the Enterprise. Forever you will be stuck thinking you live in the stupid age.
Well, I'm going to go bang a green alien chick now, sucks to be you.
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It's a holodeck that provides accurate recreations of early 21st century living rooms. Marvel at the crazy things people had back then, such as non-CFL light bulbs and indoor toilets.
So... (Score:1)
Without reading the stupid article, which company did they end up buying out for this product?
3DV Systems (Score:2, Informative)
3DV Systems, an Israeli company, so it seems: http://www.engadget.com/2009/06/03/microsofts-project-natal-roots-revealed-3dv-systems-zcam/ [engadget.com]
Probably find more info with a search on "3DV Systems" on the GOOG.
This is just step one. (Score:1)
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Well, we only have to wait and see if it manages to displace the VR stuff people use and love for the last 15 years.
Oh, wait...
Nintendo did it first? (Score:1)
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“History is about to be rewritten"?? (Score:5, Insightful)
“Since the dawn of time, humanity’s long journey has led us to countless discoveries, Yet with each leap forward for civilisation, more people have been left behind. But our quest has taken us to a completely new horizon. History is about to be rewritten. This time human beings will be at the centre -- and the machines will be the ones that adapt. After five million years of evolution, is it possible that the future of humanity is humanity itself?”
That the article repeats verbatim such a quote from Microsoft's presentation without even a slight nod to the gross self-aggrandization clued me to the fact that the whole piece is yet another corporate advertisement disguised as news.
I mean, in addition to the whole story starting with an emergency meeting on mid 2007 about the need to "reimagine a new direction for the Xbox" yet failing to point out it was all due to the runaway success of the Wii. It actually sticks out like a sore thumb to see these VPs panicking about something that the article refuses to acknowledge exists.
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Well, they mentioned the Wii once at the end of the article:
Over Christmas 2008, they narrowed their focus on three ideas, sport being one. “We wanted to compete head-on with Wii Sports,” Andreas admits. “We knew we could do so much more with Kinect than you could with Wii.”
Because the launch titles were aimed at the family market, Rare chose the more popular sports. “We put a bowling prototype together in three days: can we significantly improve on Wii Sports’ bowling? Could we allow people to run at the screen with the ball? We realised we could improve on it.
I think that quote is hilarious. They never mention how exactly they improved upon Wii bowling. Personally, I can't see how it could be better because the controller is why Wii bowling feels so intuitive. It gives feedback straight to your hand, both audio and rumble. It may not feel like a bowling ball, but it comes closer to simulating the experience of bowling because there is something to physically connect you with what you're seeing on screen
Wii can build it... (Score:2)
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Wouldn't it be nice if the developers were suddenly compelled to tell the actual truth in an interview? It would go something like:
Interviewer: Where did you get the idea for Natal/Kinect?
Don Mattrick: Steve Balmer saw that the Wii was making a shitload of money and told us to copy it. That was the genesis.
Interviewer: Why did you decide to go with the body motion idea?
Don Mattrick: It was a way to rip off the motion control thing without violating any of Nintendo's patents.
Interviewer: So, where will
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This has nothing to do with the Wii other than they both detect motion. I know it's fun to think everything is "ripped off", but the way Natal works and the way the Wii work are completely different.
The idea of motion sensing is broad enough that claiming anyone who does it is copying the Wii is more than a bit silly.
If you want to say it's copying something, it's more like a next generation of the Eye Toy.
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Yeah, and Window's 'Recycling Bin' wasn't inspired by Apple's 'Trash Can' in the least bit. They're fundamentally different. Personally, I only use Windows because Macs are so environmentally unfriendly. They can't even recycle!
On a more serious note, Kinect is a rip-off of both the Eye-Toy and Wii, but I'm sure the Wii is what financially motivated the project. Microsoft is a market-share company, they love pie charts where they have the largest piece. I don't think Eye-Toy had anything they were envious o
Why Does This Seem Familiar? (Score:3, Insightful)
Why does Kinect seem familiar? Microsoft saying "It will change the industry" and "Big players are developing it" and "You'll wonder how you ever did anything without it!" and "Everything will change after this". Oh yeah, this is what they said with Windows Mobile 6.
The more reports I get back the more it seems like just with Windows Mobile 6 that marketing is over promising features. That isn't to say Kinect is "snake oil" because of a lot of it does seem to work but that it is rough...."rougher" than they want to let on. So we'll get a big advertising blitz, Microsoft will declare it was a huge success, and then summary die because it is expensive and never quite work as smooth as they advertised while the competition runs wild. All of this is like WinMo6.
Anyhow, there is some merit to the tech but it feels like it is going in the wrong direction. Its like the belief one can effectively replace a keyboard with voice recognition. VR is useful in itself but not as a keyboard replacement! As an HMI issue, gesture controls found on Wii "work" because the interface is simplified not because of waggle. Replacing waggle sticks with Kinect without doing the requisite "simplification" is going to be a disaster. I wish they would abandon schemes like "replacing the controller for games" that are more smoke and mirrors than practical execution. Go with practical stuff like if my console notices I put the controller down to answer the phone, door, kids jump in my lap, or whatever, pause the game. If the console notice I'm no long in front of my TV for an extended period of time, go into hibernate mode. Stuff like this is more useful than trying to figure out how build a fighting game by waving my arms and kicking with my legs.
But in any event, $150us is too much for all of it. If it was built in at the start that would be one thing but it is too late now.
Kinectimals?? (Score:2)
Embarrassing Kinect demo on German TV show (Score:3, Funny)
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I'd put good money on Kinect bombing (Score:2)
Ballmer has fucked up MS, imo.
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There'll be plenty at the used game store. (Score:1)
Sounds like a great thing to pick up on Craigslist for 75% off, when the early adopters figure out it is boring and doesn't work with Madden.
Data point of 1 (Score:2, Interesting)
Kinect Will Win In Some Markets (Score:1)
MS & Sony lost touch with gaming reality (Score:2)
Both MS & Sony want to extend console lifetimes past the 5 years they have been since the 80's, to a 10 year cycle. The problem is, the hardware can't keep up with that cycle.
Both Sony & MS are finally either breaking even on the consoles, or making a little profit now from the hardware (not counting research costs, errors, etc) so they want to stretch out the life of these products as much as they can.
And they will, of course, fail. Move, Kinetic can NOT keep their sales going for 5 years. No a
4 years too late (Score:2)
Played This Last Month... (Score:2)
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"Have they added enough padding to the conference room walls? When Ballmer finds out the terrible ROI on this crap, there will be an epic chair throwing incident."
And if the developers have the hardware in the room, tracking Ballmer, it would serve as a great field test of the device.
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Kinect has no mouth, but it must scream.
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It reminds me of drama-documentary writing. If you removed all the breathless amazement and hyperbole the article would be reduced to one-tenth of its original size.
Since I'm busy procrastinating, I made the article as boring and uninformative as possible:
With Kinect, Microsoft plans to improve how we interact with consoles. But first they had to solve a few problems.
'Kinect', Microsoft’s new motion-sensing system for the Xbox 360, does away with the game controller in favour of the player’s own body. It can track your body in real time, recognise who in the room is playing and respond to voice commands. Its creators call it a "natural user interface" or NUI.
Reliably decoding human movements and voices is quite difficult. But they managed it in the end.
The Xbox team contracted PrimeSense to provide Kinect’s depth sensor chip and reference design. Impressed with the depth-sensing capability, a small team quickly prototyped around 70 minigames. The possibilities quickly became clear, impressing executives.
Kinect Sports is currently undergoing playtesting in Warwickshire.