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Carmack: Mobile Gaming To Surpass Current Consoles 119

Posted by Soulskill from the speaking-of-inevitable-doom dept.
donniebaseball23 writes "The rate at which hardware iterates in the smartphone and tablet space has allowed the technology to nearly catch up with consoles. It won't be long before we're all carrying small devices more powerful than the PS3, says Doom creator and id Software programming genius John Carmack. Speaking in an interview, he commented, 'It's unquestionable that within a very short time, we're going to have portable cell phones that are more powerful than the current-gen consoles.'" Even if that's the case, Nintendo still wants no part of it.
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Carmack: Mobile Gaming To Surpass Current Consoles More

Carmack: Mobile Gaming To Surpass Current Consoles

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  • ... and this is news because ? (Score:2, Funny)

    by Anonymous Coward

    http://plasmaoxyd.de/wp/wp-content/uploads/2006/04/reissack.jpg

  • ...and the same for (most of the) PC market, and given my recent first (very easy) experience with DLNA the same for most "set top" equipment in general.

    Except in special circumstances requiring very heavy lifting (research modeling, professional video/audio production, rendering, heavy duty compiling, etc) I'd imagine our "phones" will be picking up the slack and replacing *everything*...

    ...at first I was repulsed by the idea, but, while that will nearly eliminate the commodity PC market you cannot el

    • Re:It's bound to happen....and again...and again.. (Score:4, Insightful)

      by epyT-R ( 613989 ) on Friday July 08, 2011 @01:18AM (#36691134)

      the problem is that server hardware pricing has it's prices lowered by the commodity consumer x86 market. if that evaporates, that new core i12 will cost $10000. I dread this day when cpu time/ram/storage are all 'services' one has to rent like utilities, with a complete lack of privacy and control.

      • I am scared of that, but, I think the 'pro-sumer' market is big enough to prevent prices from getting that high...and some of these tasks, especially the media centric, are not a ready fit to the latency involved in a distributed type service. Of course that latency will decrease over time, but, so long as some of us know that for a small-to-medium level investment we can nearly eliminate that latency there will be a market for it.

        I mean, if we as a society have the capacity to produce an SOC capable of

        • Hell, Data Caps by the major ISP's will prevent this from happening anytime soon...and that's with wired connections.

          The wireless carriers still believe they have a right to shove a stick up your ass while they rifle through your wallet taking all the cash and credit cards.

      • Re: (Score:2)

        by mwvdlee ( 775178 )

        Yeah, but ARM-based servers will become REALLY cheap.

        • Re: (Score:2)

          by tepples ( 727027 )
          Cheap, but locked down to run only those server applications approved by the server manufacturer.

    • Apart from a throwaway line at the end of the article, this has absolutely nothing to do with cloud computing, or distributed computing - at least not any more than current-gen consoles are "Cloud Computing". It's not even eliminating the commodity PC - it's wondering if it can eventually be miniaturized enough to fit it in your pocket instead of on your desk.

      Personally, I think iOS and Android are going to eat the DS' lunch. All they're missing is the interface, and things like this [sonyericsson.com] show they're working on

    • Re: (Score:2)

      by MrHanky ( 141717 )

      People are still harping on about this, due to the media hype, but it's bullshit. Mobile phones are great for exactly one thing: mobility. For everything else, they suck. Email? Suck. Web browsing? Suck. Word processing? You're joking. Even for things they do better than the desktop computer, like book reading, the mobile phone sucks for (compared to, say, a Kindle or an actual book). Phones aren't replacing desktop or laptop computers, they're additions.

      Gaming especially sucks, as even the best gaming phon

    • Re: (Score:2)

      by geekoid ( 135745 )

      Or it's just a dynamic cluster of mobile devices.

      IT's not cyclic, it's a pendulum slowing towards a middle ground. And the cloud has very little to do with mainframes. What we have now is decentralized storage, that can also be centralized(your PC) and it's mostly run locally.
      What we have now isn't one or the other, it's some of both.

      Easy access to all are data wirelessly pretty much means we won't have an app for that because it isn't needed. We will have case whey data on the cloud will need to be downloa

  • Considering the current generation of consoles, it's not that hard.
    • Indeed, the current generation is too old.

      And this shift may not last very long:
      Mobile phones are, well, mobile. You'll always have a stronger limitation when it comes for energy / room for electronic devices compared to home consoles.
      If a new console created as a high-end graphic one would be put on sale now, it'ld totally smash the mobile device in quality. Just compare what a good computer can do, with what a mobile device can do. It's totally different.

      • Re: (Score:2)

        by Toonol ( 1057698 )
        'Better graphics' is not the important advantage consoles have over smartphones. (For the last few generations, the 'winning' console has tended to have weaker graphics.) The ergonomics is. If you could plug your smartphone into your TV, connect several nice controllers, and play games from your couch, then smartphones might replace consoles. Until that happens, they are not even in competition. Maybe they'll cut into Sony or Nintendo's handheld sales, but I doubt that will even see much of a hit.

  • Games only on smartphones - that's like sayin'... (Score:3)

    by c0lo ( 1497653 ) on Friday July 08, 2011 @01:17AM (#36691130)
    ... who needs game consoles now that everybody has Farmville?
    </small_dose_of_sarcasm>

    • No, it's not, and what you're saying makes no more sense than asking, "Who needs <your OS of choice> when we all have a text editor?" You're comparing a simplistic product that runs on a platform to a platform, rather than comparing a platform to a platform. A more apt joke would have been, "Who needs game consoles now that Facebook has games?"

      Really, all they're saying here is that the hardware platforms that iterate more frequently will eventually outpace the ones that hold still for the better par

      • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

        by account_deleted ( 4530225 )
        Comment removed based on user account deletion

        • Now while I'll give old Steve credit, in that he has trained his users pretty damned well to expect to carry a charger with them

          That's pretty absurd since Apple is the only mobile handset maker that has focused, almost to the exclusion of all else, better battery life. It's why they came out with multitasking after everyone else and even then in a more limited form.

          iPhone users are some of the few smartphone users who can easily go a few days without a recharge.

          Now it is true gaming sucks down a lot of powe

          • Re: (Score:1)

            by Anonymous Coward

            That's pretty absurd since Apple is the only mobile handset maker that has focused, almost to the exclusion of all else, better battery life. It's why they came out with multitasking after everyone else and even then in a more limited form.

            That is some wacky stuff. iPhones need to be charged every night under normal use. More often than that, if you play games/watch movies/etc which is really the selling point. Whereas many cell phones will last more than a week between charges.

          • My old blackberry bold 9000 and my new blackberry bold 9700 have both easily gone more than a week without a charge when used as pure phones + push data, and at least a couple of days when used more intensly. AND if I wanted to, I could easily buy a bigger battery for my phone. When Apple users talk about battery life, you have to understand that for the same usage, most Blackberry users have pretty much always laughed, and keep laughing. Besides Apple only provides the battery life that fits their design.

        • I do agree that you can't keep pushing pixels without draining batteries, but I also think that the recent iDevices have done a good job at allowing developers to push a load of pixels without draining the batteries quickly. Your analysis seems to more be based on the older models, which definitely suffered from the issues you described and did indeed seem to train their users to carry chargers and packs around. I know they certainly trained me to do so!

          When I was playing Infinity Blade, which is the applic

          • Comment removed based on user account deletion

            • This is just common sense folks and if they expect these things to replace portable gaming consoles then they need to be able to get a good 10-12 hours on a charge while going whole hog like the Nintendo ones can, and I just don't see how that is possible while keeping it thin and sleek.

              To be fair, and backing up your point, the 3DS only gets about a half dozen hours of usable time on a charge.

        • Re: (Score:2)

          by genner ( 694963 )

          The problem is everyone and their dog and their dog's fleas have bought into the Jobsean school of mobile design which means slim = sexy and iSliver batteries for everyone.

          No matter how much you shrink things there are certain fundamental rules one simply can't avoid, and one of those is "you push a bunch of textures and physics and advanced 3D models around in real time you ARE gonna suck power"

          Now while I'll give old Steve credit, in that he has trained his users pretty damned well to expect to carry a charger with them I really can't see the iExtension cord becoming the big item on everyone's Xmas list, can you? Sure you might eventually squeeze the vector processing and FP math engines down to that size, hell you can probably stick a chip on my pinkie nail that is faster than my 1998 gamer rig. But in the end it don't change the fact that at the end of the day these are supposed to be MOBILE devices, and not in the Alienware "Where's the outlet again?" definition of the word. I can't see folks putting up with 15 minute battery life just so they can have Halo III on their cell phone.

          This is exactly what will hold it back. Until someone invents a better battery mobile gaming will always suffer a huge handicap.

          • Re: (Score:1)

            by Dog-Cow ( 21281 )

            Those using their mobile device as a gaming platform will not have a problem charging every day, if need be.

            • Re: (Score:2)

              by genner ( 694963 )

              Those using their mobile device as a gaming platform will not have a problem charging every day, if need be.

              People have to do that already. If there is to be any vast improvement in mobile games people are going to have to recharge more than once a day.

      • PC's are fastly more powerful today then any console out there AND they iterate like crazy! Hasn't helped the number of games for that platform has it?

        As for looking stunning, take a GOOD hard look at the game you mentioned, visit the home page, scroll down to four screenshots on a row click on the screenshot on the right of a single guy standing in front of a grey wall. Look at the textures of the wall. My god, that is BLURRED! If that same game had appeared on a PC or even a console it would have been sl

        • Actually, in some ways, the PSP IS more powerful than the PS2. It's CPU is faster and it can do some things in hardware that the PS2 has to do in software less efficiently. But the PS2 CAN do such things in software because of the programmable VU's, which the PSP does not have.

        • Re: (Score:2)

          by julesh ( 229690 )

          PC's are fastly more powerful today then any console out there AND they iterate like crazy! Hasn't helped the number of games for that platform has it?

          Erm. Yes. Gamespot lists around 15,000 titles available for PC, compared to about 1,750 for PS3 and about 4,000 for XBox/360. And that's just releases from major studios -- most independent producers only target PC, and aren't listed on gamespot.

          • Gamespot lists around 15,000 titles available for PC

            How many of them actually work on a modern PC, vs. games that run only in DOS, Windows 3, or Windows 98? And how many of the newer games won't run on a brand-new PC with an Intel GMA? The "PC" platform doesn't guarantee compatibility, unlike where a "DS" game will work on any DS system.

            XBox/360

            Likewise. I seem to remember reading that only about half of the games for the Xbox work on the Xbox 360's Xbox emulator.

        • PC's are fastly more powerful today then any console out there

          My Wii handles four players at once, all on one system. (Game: Super Smash Bros. Brawl). There's something about the PC, on the other hand, that discourages developers from optimizing their code for four players.

          AND they iterate like crazy!

          This also has two downsides: PC game developers don't want to lose sales when the majority of the audience owns a PC too old to meet the game's system requirements, and it costs a lot of money for a small indie developer to buy several years' worth of hardware for compatibility and performance testi

      • Re: (Score:2)

        by c0lo ( 1497653 )

        A more apt joke would have been, "Who needs game consoles now that Facebook has games?"

        That's what I was implying. I just picked the worst example (in my opinion) of Facebook games I could find.

        Really, all they're saying here is that the hardware platforms that iterate more frequently will eventually outpace the ones that hold still for the better part of a decade, which is no surprise, given advances in miniaturization and power efficiency. And that effect does matter, because contrary to your analogy, not all mobile games are simplistic and mindless click-fests. A small but increasing number of them are decent titles put out by capable teams who can produce games with solid gameplay that stand up well against their console counterparts.

        I got also this gist too. But as you noted (by your reference to Gen8 console), that shouldn't be a reason to throw mud at Nintendo because still wants no part of it [it = smartphone gaming].

    • Games are spread amongst an incredibly diverse range of tastes (unless you're a PC gamer, then your taste is just shoot-em-ups... ;) ), there is no 'only on smartphones' in the future of the video game market. The concept of it even becoming a majority of the marketshare is far-fetched. It's like predicting the death of pizza because cheeseburgers became available cheaply on every city block.

      • Re: (Score:2)

        by c0lo ( 1497653 )

        Games are spread amongst an incredibly diverse range of tastes (unless you're a PC gamer, then your taste is just shoot-em-ups... ;) ), there is no 'only on smartphones' in the future of the video game market. The concept of it even becoming a majority of the marketshare is far-fetched. It's like predicting the death of pizza because cheeseburgers became available cheaply on every city block.

        A rendering in more serious words of what I was saying (or intended to say).

        Games are spread amongst an incredibly diverse range of tastes (unless you're a PC gamer, then your taste is just shoot-em-ups... ;) )

        Just finished the Endgame; singularity [emhsoft.com]... but... I did notice your wink.

      • One genre of gaming that has been almost exclusively PC is turn based strategy (the empire games like Civilization) but I don't think that its much of a stretch to presume that these touch devices (phones and tablets) will completely take them over.

        For this genre a mouse is better than a console controller, but touch is even better than a mouse.
        • Maybe on a big tablet, but Civilization on a touchscreen phone would be painful - who wants to micromanage units and production while stabbing away with a finger and dealing with screen smudges etc? A stylus interface might make it more attractive, and I have to admit when I'm buying mobile games (for the NDS) this is the type I prefer (Might and Magic, 40k Squad Command, Civ, etc), but given the choice of a big screen and a better control interface I'll always go for a PC/console version over the mobile (c
  • Provided we don't mind a cell phone with a 12 hour battery life.
    • Actually, I wouldn't mind one. My current one barely does 8 with just browsing the web and probably less while playing games, which is why I never play them.

  • Wow, brilliant! (Score:3)

    by Dahamma ( 304068 ) on Friday July 08, 2011 @01:34AM (#36691196)

    So, he is predicting in 5 years a phone will have the performance of a (by then) 10 year old console. When, big surprise, my current phone is about equal to a console from 10 years ago.

    Did John just finally discover Moore's Law?

    • One is that he thinks current gen hardware is "good enough" that there really isn't the need to push much farther. Well if you do believe that, then when phones meet that, they'll be at the level they need to be. I mean we can disagree about what the level is, but I think we can all agree that there is a level hardware will reach that past which there isn't any real gains, for games at least. Perhaps he believes that level is what we have now.

      Another is that he's kinda become a mobile fanboy, and a little o

      • The problem with Rage (ipad version) was that it was absolutely stunning until you realized that it was a damn rails shooter. It was still fun for a short time after the realization, but quickly became tedious.

        When I can play Red Faction or even San Andreas on a tablet, then I might agree with John.

      • The iPhone version of Rage is different from the others. They only share the setting and some of the art assets. The engines are completely different.

    • Re: (Score:2)

      by trawg ( 308495 )

      You are talking about a single sentence in an entire article of things Carmack said. The submitted decided it was the most interesting thing, and the Slashdot editor decided it was also interesting, and as a result... here we are.

      I can't imagine anyone seriously thinking Carmack saying "computers are going to get faster" is particularly insightful. However, we live in an age of soundbites; this one appears to only be on Slashdot because it's just an utterance of someone that is held - for excellent reasons,

  • Who cares. (Score:1, Informative)

    by RightSaidFred99 ( 874576 )
    Mobile gaming sucks. Who wants to look at some little 4" (or even 7-10") screen and use wierdo controls. The only thing mobile gaming has going for it is..it's mobile and you can use it to waste time when you don't have access to a real game on a real system.

    • Who wants to look at some little 4" (or even 7-10") screen

      Everyone who's ever played a GameBoy or Nintendo DS?

      use wierdo controls

      What wierdo controls? [sonyericsson.com]

    • Comment removed based on user account deletion

      • from DS to PSP to those cheap emulator players (I really need to pick one of those up)

        WHAT cheap emulator players? What do they emulate? What's cheap? Tellmetellmetellmetellme. /tired of trying to keep my old PSP1000 going far beyond its natural lifespan...

        • Comment removed based on user account deletion

          • What I'm talking about is something like [Benss BX-98 DV 8GB Mp6 Player - 4.3" Camera Mp6 Player - Beats PSP - 8gb-PMP-BX98]

            MP6 player? I thought the rest of the world was still on MPEG-4 players like the iPod touch and Android-powered phones. Let me guess: they skipped the model number of a well-known submachine gun.

            So I check out the specs:

            As game console, support NES, GBA, SMD, BIN formats multiple game simulator, 8-32/64 bit games

            This covers NES, Game Boy Advance (GBA), and Sega Genesis (SMD/BIN) games, and by extension also Game Boy, Game Gear, and ColecoVision games through FluBBa's emulators that run on GBA. But what

          • No I hadn't seen them. I owe you some mod points. :) Thanks!

            Hm. Research suggests that the gold standard for these knockoff emulators is the Dingoo A320 with Dingux (Linux) add-on. Without it, it seems it has trouble, like most others, with SNES and Genesis/Megadrive (16-bit games).

            Also, oddly, it seems to use MiniSD.

            What the hell. I haven't gadgeted it up in a while so I'll check one out. They're pretty cheap on DealExtreme (HK seller that takes forever to ship but has been pretty good in the past).

    • Re: (Score:2)

      by mcvos ( 645701 )

      Weirdo controls? There are only a few types of games for which the standard console controller is really suitable (action/FPS games, mostly). For many other types of game, touch is incredibly convenient and intuitive. Even more so than a mouse. My 2 year old son can play games on a tablet that he wouldn't be able to play otherwise.

      Different games have different requirements for controls. Some are better served by consoles, others by tablets. (But of course the best games are only playable with mouse+keyboar

      • Re: (Score:2)

        by tepples ( 727027 )

        Different games have different requirements for controls. Some are better served by consoles, others by tablets.

        If a genre is served by consoles, isn't it equally served by a PC with USB gamepads plugged in?

        • Re: (Score:2)

          by mcvos ( 645701 )

          I understand that some games work better on a couch with a big TV and some friends. PC tends to be more a solo thing. Or at least one PC each.

          I suppose if you really want to, it could be possible to play some games on a tablet with a gamepad.

          • If a genre is served by consoles, isn't it equally served by a PC with USB gamepads plugged in?

            I understand that some games work better on a couch with a big TV and some friends

            TVs made in the past five years have VGA and HDMI in. PCs made in the past twenty years have VGA and/or DVI/HDMI out. So how would a PC not work "on a couch with a big TV and some friends"?

            • Re: (Score:2)

              by mcvos ( 645701 )

              Where do you leave the mouse and the keyboard?

              • Re: (Score:2)

                by tepples ( 727027 )

                Where do you leave the mouse and the keyboard [when using gamepads with a home theater PC]?

                Probably not far from where one would leave the Nunchuk accessory when you play Wii games that don't use the Nunchuk.

    • Re: (Score:2)

      by geekoid ( 135745 )

      Well, apparently million and millions disagree with you.

      And stop saying 'real' systems and 'real' game, you pretentious fuck.

      It's a game, people enjoy it or they don't, that is all.

    • Who wants to look at some little 4" (or even 7-10") screen and use wierdo controls.

      Probably you will be able to connect your mobile gaming device to a 47" screen and use a wireless 14 button controller. So, you will care

  • ....while there's still a market for desktop PC/consoles as gaming devices.

    Mobile devices are limited by what they are. As long as efficiency of size (mobility) is a defining feature of mobile gaming, they'll probably always be cut down versions of these bigger stationary devices.

  • I got another preduction for Carmack: More people have played MS solitaire then ALL of your games combines. So pack it in dude, you are in a dying industry!

    Oh wait, several industries can exist beside each other without really impacting each other? You mean the entry of flash games did NOT kill of other forms of gaming? How odd, I was assured that X will kill Y also know as the iKiller was a sure thing!

    One of the things that always suprises me about the handhelds made by Nintendo and Sony is how the games

    • Re: (Score:1)

      by xhrit ( 915936 )
      you just made john carmack your bitch...
      • Eh, no he didn't. All he did was prove he didn't read the article. Here's one of John's quotes from it:

        "So it looks like it’s parallel growth rather than one stealing from the other."

        I'm not sure who SmallFurryCreature is supposed to be arguing against, but if you read the article, it's definitely not John Carmack.
  • N-gage thought they could make a mobile phone + gaming...
    There's so many features packed into phones now, maybe gaming + phone wasn't ready for the world yet.
    The game maker for a cell phone game needs to rely on touch screen, and tilt, or they have no controls.
    Nintendo might still go strong on D pad+ buttons, and quality sequels.
    I don't see the whole of the phone market going to go D-pad +buttons, and game makers aren't likely gonna make games for a single model of phone. So it makes you wonder...
    • I don't think it was just a case of being too early (although that was a factor - mobile gaming wasn't nearly as heavily pushed as Android or Apple apps are now). A big part of the problem was that the N-gage was expensive, difficult to use (you had to take the battery out to change game cartidge), and the vertical screen was ugly.

      I don't see the whole of the phone market going to go D-pad +buttons, and game makers aren't likely gonna make games for a single model of phone. So it makes you wonder...

  • I don't get the point of high-end portables. They're a waste of processing power. Portables are great to kill time when you have to stay in a boring place, but they simply do not make sense as full-fledged consoles.

    I mean, for example... the PS Vita, to be generous, is the portable with the largest screen. And what do you get when you cram a hundred million polygons, high-res textures, advanced lighting and shaders, and the kitchen sink, onto its 5-inch screen? Not much, because it's still a goddamn 5-inch

  • I once read a piece on "Never underestimate your competition" it can come from anywhere. I forgot the exact link, but the crux of the story was alarm clocks.
    The article was India specific.
    Till around 1999, mobile phones were a rarity, and tariffs were very expensive, and mobiles were expensive too.
    People used to buy cheap alarm clocks(working of AA batteries lasting a month or 2).
    These used to cost 300-400 INR (8$) and had brisk sales.
    Then mobile tariffs well, and so did cost of mobile phones. Everyone had

    • So is history repeating itself. 5 years down the line your mobile phone costing same as a handheld console, will perform equally, if not better. Only the loyalists will still buy a console.

      You could say the same thing about stand-alone mp3 players now. Back in the day, my friends and I would drool over those, with increasingly bigger capacities, etc. A 1 GB player was luxurious. My current phone's memory card can store 8 GB. Coupled with a good set of earphones, they've all but obviated my need for a dedicated mp3 player. I haven't seen anyone else in a long time want one either.

  • Before we are carrying around mobile devices that are as powerful as the PS3, it's more likely that we're carrying around mobile devices that are slightly more powerful than the ones we currently have at a greatly reduced cost. There's no reason to have a phone as powerful as the PS3. Couple that with the costs and technical challenges of cramming the technology into a phone without becoming hotter than the sun, it really just isn't worth it. It's not that I don't believe it can be done, I just don't see a

    • Re: (Score:1)

      by gl4ss ( 559668 )
      the pda-phones already have more memory(this matters a _lot_, ps3 game design is chiefly constricted by this, not by amount of polygons it can pump) than ps3 and rightly used can pump polygons quite nicely. the problem is in controls with doing compelling, captivating games for them that you'd play for hours and hours. but the point is, if you hooked that smartphone to a hdmi tv and some controls, you could make more compelling games than on ps3. ps3 and xbox360(ds and psp are both jokes too now, in 2011) r

  • Even when mobile devices are more powerful than the PS3, they will still have absolutely horrible controls. And because of that, they will never be good for anything more than lightweight casual games.

    How come there are all these stories this week about how powerful mobile devices are? Anyone with half a brain knows that power is only part of the equation.

    • I agree completely. Matter of fact, I own a 360 purely because of the controllers. It feels better/sturdier than the PS controllers and I love having actual triggers.

  • screen to small and controls suck for just about any FPS game. Now poor controls are ok to get by for TBS games but can be better.

    Forget about having a good driving game with phone controls.

  • SO (Score:2)

    by geekoid ( 135745 )

    Not really comparable. They are different games, for the most part.

    It's like saying Facebook games are played ore the consoles. true, but it doesn't really mean anything.

  • ...the consoles may very well become portable. It may already be feasible to put an HDMI out on an iPad and give it wireless bluetooth controllers. On the road, just use it as a portable gaming system - no tradeoff for performance/ portability/ style of play. I'd be very surprised if that screen on the Wii U's controller, and the sheer SIZE of the thing doesn't also include at least a processor of sorts to enable this very thing.
  • I have never bothered to buy a console let alone play games on my phone.

    I have played PC games for what must be close to 30 years now and will continue to do so.

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